Nascar Racing Online

Another Chase season is upon us and with the top 12 drivers having their points re-established it is almost like starting over which is a good thing if you’re in the bottom half of the 12 after the first 26 races.

It has been a bit of a tradition here at NASCAR RnR to break down the the Chase drivers and boldly predict the eventually finishing order of the Championship Chase.  Well in keeping with that tradition we also bring you a special feature in which some of our more frequent contributors give us their thoughts of the Chase.

Just head on to the other side of the jump to find out what we’ve predicted.  I personally use a crystal ball but don’t tell anyone, especially Clance from The Church of the Great Oval, she would get really upset with me since it is hers that I’ve been using these last few years (and she thought she lost it when she moved from one State to another – heh).

First we start off with the biggest Tony Stewart fan out there, Aaron (I think I know where this is going):

The story of the 2010 Chase will be what driver best survived the 10-race playoff to claim the championship, not the driver who dominated.

That’s not to say a driver might not dominate the Chase. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch all jump out as potential threats to win at least half the races on the Chase schedule, and resurgent Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Tony Stewart also look like they could add to their trophy cases more than a couple of times in the Chase.

However, each of those six drivers have dealt with streaks of disappointing results, either due to performance or just bad luck, and any stretch of bad races will end their title hopes in a hurry.

Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, and Matt Kenseth are all chasing the title, but the winless quartet has struggled to sustain momentum and only Burton and Gordon have exhibited potential race-winning form. A victory may not be necessary to win the Chase, but consistent top-fives will be.

That leaves regular season point leader Kevin Harvick. Of the 12 Chasers, no one has been able to put together the combination of speed and consistency better than Harvick, and if he continues to do so for ten more weeks, it will be the perfect storm that carries the California native to his first Sprint Cup title, making him the second driver to win the Chase after ending the regular season atop the standings (Stewart in 2005), as well only the second driver to win both the Sprint Cup and Nationwide titles in their careers, joining Bobby Labonte.

Hmm … Kevin  and not Tony Stewart?  I guess I was wrong with that one.  Let’s see what Melissa, aka TrackGirl, has to say:

It is that time of year again. The Chase for the Nextel Cup brings out some of the fiercest racing and some of the most calculated racing in the whole season. The drivers in the Chase must weigh wins to points and careful driving to winning it all.

I always wish this was the time of year that the drivers went all out; you know what to the wall kind of racing… but it really does become a set of races that require drivers to consider whether or not the win is worth the risk, points wise.

I sincerely hope that a sleeper comes out this year. I always hope Kyle Busch will show what he is really made of, but he always seems to fade out in the Chase. I pull for Burton and Bowyer, my favorite underdogs. (They aren’t really though, are they?) I would love to see the 14 come out on top, an owner driver? Cool. But you know, I think that I can say I know this sport; and danged if Johnson isn’t going to pull together with Knaus and kick the other drivers’ rear bumpers from here to Homestead. I just bet that the 48 will win, one more time. I think that Johnson and Knaus want to make a point that they haven’t slumped, or lost it, or faded away and I think that the Chase is where they will prove it.

Wait!  Jimmie Johnson?  Whoa, didn’t see that coming, I honestly thought she would be pulling for The Biff or Cousin Carl.  What do I know?

 O.K. now its time for my pick.  What?  Where are Matt’s and Troys?  Dunno.  Actually Matt is doing something different while Troy our Nationwide guy is MIA at the moment with some severe computer problems.

O.K. can I now get to my picks?  What?  Another question?  O.K, O.K., what is it now?  Were these predictions made before or after yesterday’s race?  Before, I just couldn’t get them up in time wihtout really cutting into the Open Race Thread (we had a very busy day with that thread yesterday let me tell you).

Now let me peer into Clance’s … er um … my crystal ball and find out the finishing order from 12th to 1st.  The images are spinning around tighter and faster than 43 cars racing the highbanks of Bristol.  What’s that I see?  A car.  Its slowing down, almost stopping caught in the orb’s mystic green glow.  What is the number on the side?

12)  17 – Matt Kenseth:  Sorry Matt you may be a past Champion but your team is not Championship material (yet, wait until next year).

11)  33 – Clint Bowyer:  His team is on the verge of something great – just not this year.  If he can some wins under his belt look for him to be top 5 next year.

10)  16 – Greg Biffle:  I like Greg but that still won’t make him finish higher than 10th (OK maybe 8th).

9)  31 – Jeff Burton:  I would really like to see Burton win the Championship but I think he is the next Mark Martin in waiting

8)  99 – Carl Edwards:  The highest finisher of the Roush clan and once they get that new motor figured out look out for him and the rest of his brethren next year.

7)  24 – Jeff Gordon:  He may want it just as bad a Jimmie but he doesn’t have Chad, Jimmie does.

6)  2 – Kurt Busch:  He may not have any teammates to help him in the Chase like the other drivers (except Stewart – on paper anyway) but that won’t matter anyway, he’d still finish around this area in the standings.  Great strides made this year and look for him to be a contender next year, just not this year.

5)  11 – Denny Hamlin:  Good driver, just not a great one – yet.  He needs to mature a little more.  He has shown great strides this year, especially with the whole knee deal, but he’s not quite there yet.  Give him 2 yrs.

4)  29 – Kevin Harvick:  Unfortunately the regular season counts for squat during the Chase.  I really want him to win, but I think his team is going to make mistakes down the stretch that even Kevin can’t drive them back from.

3)  18 – Kyle Busch:  He’s here because he is a good driver, not as mature as he should be but a whole lot mature than he used to be.  This kid is talented and will win multiple Championships down the road, maybe even next year but just not this year.

2)  14 – Tony Stewart:  He is calm, cool, collected, and best friends with his car owner but he is missing the key ingredient that Jimmie Johnson has, Chad Knaus.

1)  48 – Jimmie Johnson:  His record setting 5-peat can be summed up in two words, Chad Knaus.  Rick Hendrick better do everything in his power to keep these two together because I don’t know if Jimmie will ever win another Championship without Chad on his Pit Box.  You need to only look at Ray Evernham and Jeff Gordon to see what I’m talking about.

O.K. that’s it, tell me what you think?  Are we close or way out to lunch?  Come on give it to us, we can take it!

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It’s Chase time, and that means it’s time to run down the field of our competitors. We continue with the zero-win Chasers. Next up: Carl Edwards. Say hello, everybody!

2010 record: Zero wins, two poles, six top 5s, 14 top 10s.

Best finish: Second (Chicagoland, Atlanta II)

High point: The entire second half of the season. Nobody’s run better than Edwards on the whole since the start of July, a period over which he’s amassed eight top-10s in 10 races and finished no lower than 12th.

Low point: Pretty much the first half of the season, stretching all the way back to late 2008. For much of the year, Edwards was all but invisible. Put it this way — he led only six laps from the start of the season to Labor Day. That’s not the pedigree of a Chase champion, but here we are.

Prospects for the Chase: Based on momentum, quite good. But he’ll have to pick up some wins in the Chase; Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch are just too good to be beaten on consistency alone.

Related 2010 links:

The NASCAR World Cup: Edwards takes the trophy
Carl Edwards will jump straight from race to postrace coverage
Nasty Edwards-Keselowski feud flares up once again
Edwards sends Keselowski flying; was it intentional?

All right, your turn. How will Edwards fare in the Chase? Make your best case for Cuz right here!

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Here is a quick look at how the 12 Chase drivers fared in Race No. 1 of the Chase at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

1. Denny Hamlin — Finished 2nd: Hamlin turned a potentially disastrous day into a great one. Spun out with less than 100 laps to go, yet rallied to maintain his points lead. (-)

2. Clint Bowyer — Finished 1st: Three years ago, Bowyer came into the Chase as an afterthought, won the opener at New Hampshire, then went on to finish third in the standings. Déjà vu? (-35 points)

3. Kevin Harvick — Finished 5th: Was buried deep in the field for most of the day, yet once again found his way toward the front. This is how Harvick won the regular season, and it’s how he starts the Chase, which is a good sign for him. (-45 points)

4. Kyle Busch — Finished 9th: Had a mini-meltdown inside the car and had to be put in his place by crew chief Dave Rogers, who made it clear he’s not taking any flack from Busch. Is it only a matter of time before Busch implodes? (-62 points)

5. Jeff Gordon — Finished 6th: Once again, Gordon is strong in the beginning, weak at the end. Still he managed to wheel his car home to a top-10 finish. It’s all smoke and mirrors at this point for Gordon. (-75 points)

6. Kurt Busch — Finished 13th: Was in and out of the top 10 the entire race, which is a lot like Busch’s season. He’s been inconsistent to this point, and, well, he was again Sunday. (-86 points)

7. Jimmie Johnson — Finished 25th: It will be an interesting run if he’s going to make it five in a row. Bad luck found Johnson early in this year’s Chase, coming in the form of a loose wheel. He wasn’t dejected afterwards. And why should he be? Four years ago he left New Hampshire in a 139-point hole. (-92 points)

8. Carl Edwards — Finished 11th: Claimed responsibility for spinning out Denny Hamlin. Looked like he was heading for a top-5 finish only to fade at the end. (-95 points)

9. Greg Biffle — Finished 17th: Was Biffle even in New Hampshire? He cracked the top 10 for a few laps early, but for the most part he was a non-factor. He’s just hoping to get through these first two weeks, then flex his muscle at Kansas Speedway. (-108 points)

10. Jeff Burton — Finished 15th: He was heading for a third- or fourth-place run until he ran out of gas, which is a big blow to Burton’s Chase chances. He needed to be near perfect in all 10 races. He was almost perfect on Sunday. Almost. (-112 points)

11. Tony Stewart — 24th: Victory was his until he ran out of gas. "I think I ran me out of fuel," Stewart said afterwards. He ran out just before he took the white flag. The worst part was that he wasn’t able to make it back to the start/finish line. (-124 points)

12. Matt Kenseth — 23rd: No surprise here. Kenseth has been mediocre all season, and was just that on Sunday. He never ran higher than 15th. (-136 points)

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Chase time! It’s here at long last. Which drivers will step up, and which will fall apart before our very eyes at Loudon? Hang here and discuss these and other matters, like the 14′s paint scheme there — seems a curious choice, very out-of-focus and all. We’ll also be hanging at the big main chat. Enjoy the race, all!

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‘The Kez’ grabs the pole for today’s race.  It looks like he’s turning into another ‘Rocket Man’ for Penske. 

So The Chase begins today.  Who will suck it up and perform well and who will crash and burn as The Chase begins? 

Only 10 races to decide who the Champion will be and as a driver you can’t mess up any one of them.  Sure you can falter a bit, but get a DNF and you’re toast. 

Let’s find out who the toaster fodder is going to be shall we?

POS	CAR	DRIVER	MAKE	SPONSOR	SPEED	TIME	BEHIND
1	12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	Penske / AAA	133.572	28.515	Leader
2	33	Clint Bowyer	Chevrolet	Cheerios / Hamburger Helper	133.464	28.538	-0.023
3	14	Tony Stewart	Chevrolet	Office Depot / Old Spice	133.413	28.549	-0.034
4	1	Jamie McMurray	Chevrolet	McDonald’s	133.389	28.554	-0.039
5	42	Juan Montoya	Chevrolet	Energizer	133.357	28.561	-0.046
6	43	A.J. Allmendinger	Ford	Insignia HDTV / Best Buy	133.273	28.579	-0.064
7	00	David Reutimann	Toyota	Tums	133.249	28.584	-0.069
8	98	Paul Menard	Ford	Sylvania / Menards	133.105	28.615	-0.100
9	18	Kyle Busch	Toyota	M&M’s	133.096	28.617	-0.102
10	99	Carl Edwards	Ford	Aflac	133.040	28.629	-0.114
11	6	David Ragan	Ford	UPS	132.970	28.644	-0.129
12	2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	Miller Lite	132.864	28.667	-0.152
13	31	Jeff Burton	Chevrolet	Caterpillar	132.711	28.700	-0.185
14	16	Greg Biffle	Ford	3M	132.637	28.716	-0.201
15	77	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	Mobil 1	132.540	28.737	-0.222
16	56	Martin Truex Jr.	Toyota	NAPA Auto Parts	132.429	28.761	-0.246
17	24	Jeff Gordon	Chevrolet	National Guard Facebook / DuPont	132.310	28.787	-0.272
18	13	Casey Mears	Toyota	GEICO	132.199	28.811	-0.296
19	19	Elliott Sadler	Ford	U.S. Air Force	132.167	28.818	-0.303
20	78	Regan Smith	Chevrolet	Furniture Row Companies	132.117	28.829	-0.314
21	9	Kasey Kahne	Ford	Budweiser	132.099	28.833	-0.318
22	11	Denny Hamlin	Toyota	FedEx Small Business	132.094	28.834	-0.319
23	47	Marcos Ambrose	Toyota	Kingsford / Bush’s Beans	132.085	28.836	-0.321
24	39	Ryan Newman	Chevrolet	U.S. Army	132.057	28.842	-0.327
25	48	Jimmie Johnson	Chevrolet	Lowe’s / Johns Manville	131.993	28.856	-0.341
26	5	Mark Martin	Chevrolet	GoDaddy.com	131.980	28.859	-0.344
27	29	Kevin Harvick	Chevrolet	Shell / Pennzoil	131.884	28.880	-0.365
28	82	Scott Speed	Toyota	Red Bull	131.719	28.916	-0.401
29	7	Robby Gordon	Toyota	SpeedFactory.tv	131.615	28.939	-0.424
30	36	Dave Blaney	Chevrolet	Mohawk Northeast	131.533	28.957	-0.442
31	20	Joey Logano	Toyota	The Home Depot	131.193	29.032	-0.517
32	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Chevrolet	Amp Energy / National Guard	131.139	29.044	-0.529
33	17	Matt Kenseth	Ford	Crown Royal	131.022	29.070	-0.555
34	164	Landon Cassill	Toyota	Gunselman Motorsports	130.837	29.111	-0.596
35	87	Joe Nemechek	Toyota	FrontRowJoe.com	130.676	29.147	-0.632
36	55	Mike Bliss	Toyota	Prism Motorsports	129.998	29.299	-0.784
37	83	Reed Sorenson	Toyota	Red Bull	129.825	29.338	-0.823
38	46	Michael McDowell	Dodge	Whitney Motorsports	129.525	29.406	-0.891
39	37	David Gilliland	Ford	Taco Bell	129.481	29.416	-0.901
40	38	Travis Kvapil	Ford	Long John Silver’s	129.204	29.479	-0.964
41	34	Tony Raines+	Ford	A&W All American Food	128.754	29.582	-1.067
42	71	Andy Lally+	Chevrolet	TRG Motorsports	128.680	29.599	-1.084
43	09	Bobby Labonte	Chevrolet	Phoenix Construction	Champion’s Provisional
Did Not Qualify
44	66	Johnny Sauter	Toyota	Prism Motorsports	128.811	29.569	-1.054
45	26	Jeff Green	Ford	Air National Guard	128.437	29.655	-1.140

+ Set by Owner Points
* Denotes Rookie

via nascar.com

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Hey Chase-haters. Chill out.

Stop telling us how badly the format stinks. Stop fantasizing about the good old days when NASCAR races were won by laps, not seconds, and championships were locked up before the final race of the season. I’m starting to think that you’re NASCAR’s version of the Tea Party. A bunch of bark, some flash, but ultimately, little bite. It’s more for the glory, not the cause.

And what is the cause? Is it the campaign against manufactured drama? Here’s a newsflash: every sport in this country has manufactured drama. It’s called playoffs.

Oh, you say, it may not be fair that NASCAR decides their championship over the final 10 races, rendering the first 26 meaningless. Well, how did the 12 drivers qualify for the Chase? Random draw? Major League Baseball decides their champion over the course of (a maximum of) 19 games after a 162 game season. Given the flukiness that can happen in such a small sample size (paging the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals), that’s considerably less fair, isn’t it?

If there wasn’t a Chase, we’d be watching Kevin Harvick waltz his way to a championship. No disrespect to Cupcake, but given the behemoth that is the NFL, what reason would casual fans have to watch NASCAR? Can anyone legitimately make the case that a late season race with no title implications is somehow more meaningful than a race that could decide the championship?

And please, don’t try to say that the Chase is contrived. It’s pretty simple, actually. The driver who scores the most points over the last 10 races wins the title. Easy enough, right? Yes, the Chase may not be perfect, but no sport is. Hell, college football’s imperfection keeps it at the forefront in the fall.

Just sit back, relax, and enjoy what could be a fantastic 10 weeks. Jimmie Johnson could get his fifth championship in a row — something that we’d look back fondly on in 20 years — or someone like Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin could knock him off. Isn’t the uncertainty and drama what draws us to sports anyway?

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  The first race of the Chase begins this weekend in New Hampshire. Brad Keselowski will start P1 after scoring his first career pole. Clint Bowyer rounds out the front row.

keselowski  Feel great for my team today. They deserve this accomplishment

AJDinger The insignia ford is feeling pretty solid for tomorrow. Really like to get a top 10. Heading off to Boston to catch basbeball and dinner

KevinHarvick  Long day… hard racing should have done things a little different but its on to Sunday..

jpmontoya  Its freaking cold here. Looking forward to go to miami tomorrow night!!!

maxpapis  Run my first legend race finished P6 run as good as P4 was a blast

aric_almirola  Well…..&@$?!$&! All of that represents what I’d like to say but isn’t exactly appropriate. Truck not good at all and we had brake issues.

JamesBuescher Thanks to all my fans for all the congrats! We will get to Victory Lane soon!

scottspeed  I’m just about over being sick, this sucks!!!   

Have a great weekend and enjoy the race.

                                    NASCAR Ranting and Raving’s NASCAR Driver Twitter List

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As practice for the Sylvania 300 began Saturday morning, Kurt Busch sat parked on pit road, having been penalized by NASCAR.

NASCAR allotted teams six sets of tires for Friday’s practice session and qualifying. NASCAR discovered Busch had seven, the extra set apparently coming from the stash of Landon Cassill.

Busch’s crew chief Steve Addington said the extra set was a mix up and that they didn’t even use it on Friday.

Regardless, both Busch and Cassill were penalized 15 minutes of practice time and both were only allowed five sets of tires for the two Saturday practices. Will that matter? Just a few laps into practice, Busch was up to sixth on the speed chart.

UPDATE: Busch said the tire issue was a mix up in communication between NASCAR officials. He said they asked an official if they could trade a pair of used tires for new tires with another team.

"He said that was fine," Busch explained. "We have another official, who will remain nameless but he has two first names — can’t trust guys with two first names — he said that we had black wheels on our car." Busch is referring to the black wheel wells. Busch’s No. 2 car uses yellow wheel wells. Cassill’s are black, making it obvious that the tires on Busch’s car weren’t his, which Busch isn’t denying. "If we had black wheels on our cars, then he would have never noticed," Busch continued. "So, it wasn’t anything we were trying to do.

"Bottom line is there was miscommunication among the officials. We paid our 15-minute penalty. It’s just like calling balls and strikes. You go with what the umpire says, and we moved on from there."

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It’s Chase time, and that means it’s time to run down the field of our competitors. We continue with the zero-win Chasers. Next up: Jeff Gordon. Say hello, everybody!

2010 record: Zero wins, zero poles, 10 top 5s, 13 top 10s.

Best finish: Second (Darlington)

High point: Normally, you’d think that an entire season would be a high point when you finish the regular season in second place. But nooooo. Gordon didn’t win a single race this year, and as a result is up against the wall as the Chase begins. He ran very, very well throughout the year, most notably a stretch of seven races from mid-June to August when he notched six top 10s.

Low point: Every restart. Gordon lost several races because he couldn’t quite keep up with speedsters like Kyle Busch on green-white-checkers or late restarts. He’s been practicing at that, but still … if one of the final races comes down to a GWC, the smart money won’t be on Gordon.

Prospects for the Chase: Depends on whom you ask. Gordon is without a doubt one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR, but is he already too far behind to catch up to Hamlin and Johnson? Perhaps. He’ll need to start fast and hope that the 11 and the 48 falter in order to have any hope.

Related 2010 links:

Jeff Gordon will make his 600th career start Saturday night
Jeff Gordon: The Infineon Eliminator
Yep, Jeff Gordon is ticked at Jimmie Johnson

All right, your turn. How will Gordon fare in the Chase? Make your best case for Rainbow right here!

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A separate points system for Chase drivers has been at the forefront of speculation for possible changes to the Chase. No official changes have been announced, and there isn’t a consensus among drivers about a separate points system. Tony Stewart is for it. Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards want to keep it the way it is.

Would a different points system be better than the current one? Well, let’s take a look. We went through each Chase race by race and used a points system for Chase drivers only. The top finishing Chase driver received 12 points, while the last finishing Chase driver got one point. So if Jimmie Johnson finished fifth but was ahead of everyone in the Chase, he got 12 points. And if Johnson finished 12th and all the other Chase drivers were ahead of him, he got one point. Make sense? (For the years with 10 drivers in the Chase, a 10-point scale was used)

2004: Kurt Busch beat Jimmie Johnson by eight points in real life, but in our points system Busch, Johnson and Jeff Gordon would have finished in a three-way tie for first with 69 points each. (This would have been a giant boom or bust situation for NASCAR. It would have gotten people to buy into the Chase for years to come or it would have set the system up for a massive failure among many fans if subsequent Chases weren’t nearly as close) The first NASCAR tiebreaker is victories, so the 2004 title would have gone to Johnson. Vader had eight victories to Gordon’s five and Busch’s three.

2005: Tony Stewart beat Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards by 35 points, but Stewart would have lost to Biffle by a single point, 66 to 65. Edwards would have tied Stewart at 65, but Stewart would have the tiebreaker, and Mark Martin would have finished fourth with 64 points.

2006: Johnson beat Matt Kenseth by 56 points and still would have won the Chase with this points system. Johnson scored 70 points, and would have beaten Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin by five points. Kenseth would have finished fourth with 56 points.

2007: Johnson beat Gordon by 77 points and would have barely beaten Gordon and Kenseth under this points format. In the first 12-driver Chase, Johnson scored 94 points, while Gordon and Kenseth each had 92. No other driver would have been within 20 points.

2008: Once again, the winner didn’t change in 2008. Johnson beat Edwards by 69 points and would have beaten Edwards 96 to 94 under this system. It would have clearly been a two-driver race, as Greg Biffle would have finished third with 78 points, the only other driver to score more than 66.

2009: Nope, the outcome doesn’t change for Vader this year either. Johnson scored 95 points to Mark Martin’s 82. Jeff Gordon would have scored 80, while Juan Pablo Montoya would have finished fourth with 71.

Yes, under our system, Johnson would be a five-time champion. But for all you Vader-haters out there, would that have been worth it for more drama? Should Chasers continue to be scored against the field or just against other Chasers? Let us know in the comments.

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