Richmond: It’s Make It or Break It Time For Some
September 13th, 2009
It’s a checkers or wreckers weekend for those drivers who are trying to make the Chase. Richmond is the site of the last race before the Chase starts and 6 of the 11 drivers battling for the last and final spot have won at Richmond before.
This should prove to be an interesting race as was last week’s action in Atlanta.
Man I feel for Kevin Harvick if it were not for that late race restart he would have won Atlanta’s first night race. Unlike race winner Kasey Kahne’s car Harvick’s car just couldn’t do it on the short runs and when Kahne passed Harvick on the re-start he didn’t look back.
After Atlanta the point difference in and around that final Chase spot in the standings tightened up a bit.
Heading into Richmond International Raceway only Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin have clinched their spots in the Chase and baring some extreme circumstances Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch should make it into the Chase too.
That now leaves Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch fighting it out for those last few spots in the Chase standings.
Montoya and Newman have to finish 18th and 16th (or better) respectively, which they certainly can do if they each run a clean race.
Greg Biffle needs to finish 11th or better to get into the Chase but where this gets real interesting is where Mark Martin is concerned.
Martin has an average finish of 12.1 in 46 races at Richmond and he has to finish 12th or better to make it into the Chase by the skin of his teeth. But if he were to make the Chase he then would take over the lead in points because each driver who makes it into the Chase has their points re-set to 5000 and then 10 bonus points are added on to the total for each win by a driver – Martin has 4 wins which is more than any other driver besides Kyle Busch.
Speaking of interesting try being Matt Kenseth, Brian Vickers or Kyle Busch?
Kenseth has to finish 2nd or better in order to get in the Chase while Brian Vickers who is 13th in points and17 points ahead of Kyle Busch needs to get 21 points on Kenseth while finishing in front of Busch at the same time to clinch a Chase spot.
Busch on the other hand has to gain 37 points on Kenseth and 17 points on Vickers to clinch.
I’m not one for making predictions but I think out of Kenseth, Vickers and Busch it will be Vickers that rises to the occasion and leaves the other two drivers behind.
Granted, Kyle Busch runs well at Richmond (average finish of 6.8 in 8 races) but you can’t ignore the fact that Vickers has earned more points than any other driver since the July Daytona race.
Consistency is the key here and Vickers has it.
I’d really like to see Busch get into the Chase too, but I don’t think it is in the cards for him this year, but you never know what might happen at any given moment in a race such as this.
Oh, who is my pick to win the race? Who cares? The real race is going to be who finishes in the Chase and who doesn’t.
Related posts:
- Is it time to start giving Pocono Raceway a break?
- The Pace Lap: Chevy Rock n’ Roll 400 @ Richmond
- Chase changes: why not make the Chase an elimination event?
- NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Crown Royal presents the Heath Calhoun 400 | Richmond International Raceway Open Race Thread
- You’re a Chase driver. How are you going to approach Richmond?
Posted in Ranting and Raving